China to lead global propylene capacity

China will contribute 48% to the global propylene capacity additions by 2030.

“Global propylene consumption is expected to potentially increase from 129.8 mtpa in 2019 to 191.84 mtpa in 2030,” reports GlobalData.

Its analysts believe that “China accounts for 48% of global propylene capacity additions.” Major capacity additions will come from the Shandong Yulong Petrochemical’s Longkou Propylene Plant with a capacity of 2.3 mtpa by 2030.

China is forecast to account for 68% of Asian capacity additions by 2030

Oriental Energy Co Ltd, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Ltd, and Jinneng Science and Technology Co Ltd will be the top three companies globally in terms of planned and announced capacity additions over the outlook period. GlobalData oil and gas experts say that China will dominate the global propylene market in the mid-term with both the biggest number of new projects and the largest absolute capacity expansion driven by economic growth. The country is forecast to account for 68% of Asian capacity additions during the outlook period.

GlobalData identifies India as the second highest country in terms of capacity additions, with capacity of 7.69 mtpa by 2030. Major capacity additions will be from Haldia Petrochemicals’ Kakinada propylene plant, with a capacity of 1.61 mtpa by 2030.

Iran will be the third highest country in terms of capacity additions, at 2.98 mtpa by 2030, with the National Petrochemical Company’s Mahshahr Propylene Plant contributing 0.5 mtpa of propylene capacity.

Earlier, GlobalData published its Global Petrochemical Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2020–2030, forecasting an increase in the global petrochemical capacity from 2.1 mtpa in 2019 to 3 mtpa in 2030, with China contributing the most – 28% of capacity additions.  

In an interview with the RUPEC information and analytical centre at the end of December, Sergey Komyshan, Member of the Management Board – Executive Director at SIBUR, assessed the prospects of exporting Russian products to Asia: “Despite a slowdown in the Chinese economy, polymer consumption remains high. In the next decade, Asia will far outpace other markets in terms of consumption, growth rates and supply shortfall. Last year, the demand for polypropylene and polyethylene in Asia reached 98 mln t, with a CAGR of 6.5% expected over the next decade.”

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